The globe is in a period of transition. We are witnessing
the emergence of new powers and the waning of established ones. India must
negotiate this shifting order while keeping its interests in mind. India has a
chance to take part in the creation of political and economic institutions that
are more appropriate for the new geopolitical dynamics as a result of the
changes that are taking place.
On August 17, 2021, the IMPRI Center for International
Relations and Strategic Studies (CIRSS) hosted a Web Policy Talk with Prof.
Harsh V. Pant, Director of Studies and Head of the Strategic Studies Programme
at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, on the topic of India and the
Evolving Global Order.
The session's moderator, Dr. Simi Mehta, opened by stating
that the world order is dynamic and that India is a key player in international
affairs. Is it possible for India to participate in the creation of economic
and political institutions as a result of these changes?
Does India have its own strategic autonomy or are its
actions primarily reactive, as the session chair Dr. Rafiq Dossani stated in
his opening remarks? Is India a price taker or a market maker in the context of
stock markets? How crucial is cooperation with powerful nations for maintaining
strategic autonomy? And what distinct assets—economic, diplomatic, social, or
perhaps even military—brings India to the table?
China and India –
Material Power
He went on to say that over the previous 20 years, we had
seen changes in the balance of world economic power. Given that its GDP is 66
percent and its saving rate of 45 percent, China has investable capital that is
two times greater than that of the US.
India, on the other hand, has a savings rate of 28%, about
twice that of the US, and a GDP of 13%, so its total new investible capital is
around 25% that of the US. It is nevertheless significant—about half of
Japan—even though it is not equal to China.
People on both sides are raising difficult issues as the
US-China impasse continues to become murkier. Can a winner be declared? What
would a full-scale trade war mean for the global economy? How will it all end?
China simply does not have much room to offset American tariffs because it
sends more to the US than it imports.
As they presently hold $1.2 trillion in US Treasury bonds,
China could try to take advantage of the US and China's financial ties if
things go truly bad, but doing so would come with hazards.
How ready is India to
accommodate change?
How adaptable is India to change, he further questioned? If
so, what are the alternatives? Will it have an impact on the future of
multilateral organisations like the UN, WHO, and WTO, to which India is
strongly committed? In addition, India and China have a number of bilateral
issues that need to be resolved. These include trade issues, border disputes,
and issues with sea lanes in the Indian Ocean.
The Theory of Power
Transition
Professor Pant opened his presentation with a discussion of
power transfer theory (having forecast the rise of China as early as 1958, this
aspect of power transition is now fully integrated into the mainstream thinking
of most current observers of world politics). Sir referred to the unipolar
movement from the past while discussing how the United States plays this
position as a global economic stabiliser.
Following the end of the Cold War, the unipolar moment saw
the US emerge as the only superpower in the 1990s. Since there was no other
superpower that posed a serious threat, the United States was said to be
experiencing a period of unipolarity in the global system, characterised by its
economic, military, and political dominance.
He spoke with the attendees about the "America
First," "American Dream," and other euphemisms that blend the
inward tendency we still see in American foreign affairs today.
The emergence of New
Geographies
As new geographies appear in the dialogues that diplomats
and policymakers have to create laws, the term "Indo-Pacific" has
been brought up frequently. This is the nickname used informally for the region
in Washington that stretches from Australia to India.
The leaders of the Quad's four major democracies have
reaffirmed their commitment to an Indo-Pacific region that is "undaunted
by coercion," which is even more pertinent in light of the recent barrage
of news.
India as a Nation
that can speak global concerns
Professor Harsh quoted from his piece published in ORF,
“Ever since the coronavirus pandemic started revealing its true scale and
scope, Modi has tried to position India carefully as a nation that can speak of
global concerns with the widest possible range of stakeholders. And the first
platform he used was SAARC, a grouping that he has tried to marginalize over
the last six years…
This is also an attempt to fill the leadership vacuum in the
global order when both China and the US have exposed their vulnerabilities.
India has shown that a nation with limited capabilities can also emerge as a
leader by outlining the concerns of like-minded countries and working with them
to build capacities in smaller states.
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